Trump Narrows Gap in New Mexico. Trails by Only 5 Points Entering Last Two Weeks.

Trump Narrows Gap in New Mexico. Trails by Only 5 Points Entering Last Two Weeks.

Trend holds steady as younger voters favor Trump over Clinton.  Johnson’s support continues to decline.

 

The state-wide survey of 1,899 likely voters, conducted on October 24 by ZiaPoll, shows a narrowing between the two major party candidates in the race for President of the United States (POTUS).

 

POTUS

Thinking about the November presidential election, if you were standing in the voting booth right now and had to make a choice for president for whom would you vote?

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After the third and final debate, the poll shows Donald Trump is closing the gap between himself and Hillary Clinton. Trump now trails by only 5 points in New Mexico, cutting his deficit in half from two weeks ago. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson has seen his support decline in his home state from 16 points four weeks ago, to 12 points two weeks ago, and now to 9 points in the final two weeks.

 

POTUS SPANNING 3 POLLS

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Just over 17 percent of likely voters in New Mexico say they associate with a party other than Republican or Democrat.

 

VOTER PARTY BREAKDOWN

With which political party are you registered?[visualizer id=”573″]

 

Trump is leading Clinton by 3 percent among this group of Independent and other party voters. The poll also shows there are more Democrats supporting Trump, 20 percent, than Republicans supporting Clinton, 13 percent.

 

POTUS BY PARTY

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Clinton leads Trump by 12 percent among Hispanic/Latino voters, but is about even with Caucasian/white and African-Americans voters.

 

VOTER ETHNICITY BREAKDOWN

Which of the following best describes your ethnic background?

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Contrary to some polls, ZiaPoll found Donald Trump leads Hilary Clinton among voters who are between 18 and 34 years old.

 

POTUS BY AGE

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This trend has held steady over the last three New Mexico statewide polls. The October 24 poll included 320 respondents between the ages of 18 and 34, 16.9 percent of the total sample. 100 respondents were between the ages 18-24 and 220 respondents between 24-34. While this sample size is not necessarily small for research purposes, caution should be used when extrapolating smaller sample counts to the overall population.

Voters between ages 18 and 34 have a very different Party breakdown than the state as a whole. According to our research, this age group has a party breakdown of 41% Democrat, 28% Republican, and 31% Independent/Other. In spite of the lower Republican registration of this age group, Trump is seeing substantial support from the other parties represented within this voting block.

 

AGE 18-24

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AGE 25-34

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AGE 35-44

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NM NEWS

Maggie Toulouse Oliver Has Substantial Lead over Nora Espanoza in Secretary of State Race

The October 24 poll shows Maggie Toulouse Oliver leading her opponent Nora Espanoza by 12 percent heading into the final two weeks before election day. Oliver is getting more support from Clinton supporters, 93.6 percent, than Espanoza is getting from Trump supporters, 83.9 percent. The poll found Oliver to have about 4 percent more support from Democrats, 76 percent, than Espanoza has from Republicans, 72 percent. Oliver also has a 9 point advantage when looking at Independents and other party voters.

 

SECRETARY OF STATE

Now, thinking about the election for the Secretary of State  in New Mexico, if you were standing in the voting booth right now and had to make a choice for secretary of state for whom would you vote?

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About This Poll

ZiaPoll, a New Mexico based non-partisan public opinion pollster, followed up its October 11th and September 24th New Mexico statewide polls with a new, post-Presidential debate poll on October 24. 1,899 likely voters took the poll via interviews on landlines and cell phones.

The scientific study was conducted statewide on October 24 with 1,899 likely New Mexico voters selected at random statewide using IVR (Interactive Voice Response) for interviews with voters via landline telephones.  Cell phones were dialed and directed to the same IVR survey. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the New Mexico likely voter population for a general election. The data was weighted using a layered technique.

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of New Mexico likely voters. The October 24 study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 2.25 percent.

This poll conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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