Trump Trails Clinton by Only 3 Points In New Mexico. Making up 2 Points Over The Last Week.

Trump Trails Clinton by Only 3 Points In New Mexico. Making up 2 Points Over The Last Week.

Johnson’s Polling Numbers Continue to Decline.

 
The state-wide survey of 1,102 likely voters, conducted on November 1st and 2nd by ZiaPoll, shows a 3 point Clinton advantage going into the final weekend before Election Day. Donald Trump has been closing the gap in New Mexico over the last three weeks and has turned a 10-point deficit three weeks ago into 5 last week, and now 3 with less than a week to go.

Trump visited Albuquerque last Sunday evening and his campaign has made it clear that they believe New Mexico is still up for grabs. With the deficit within the margin of error of a statistical tie, both candidates have ramped up spending in the state. Clinton still leads among females and Hispanic/Latino voters, however Trump is leading Clinton by 3 points in the crossover vote. Meaning more Democrats are voting for Trump than Republicans are voting for Clinton. The poll also found that younger voters between 18 and 34 continue to support Trump over Clinton. This trend has remained consistent over the last four NM statewide surveys.

 

PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: COMBINED
Choice for President of the United States. POTUS Will Vote is combined with POTUS Already Voted to make up this table.

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Trump visited Albuquerque last Sunday evening and his campaign has made it clear that they believe New Mexico is still up for grabs. With the deficit within the margin of error of a statistical tie, both candidates have ramped up spending in the state. Clinton still leads among females and Hispanic/Latino voters, however Trump is leading Clinton by 3 points in the crossover vote. Meaning more Democrats are voting for Trump than Republicans are voting for Clinton. The poll also found that younger voters between 18 and 34 continue to support Trump over Clinton. This trend has remained consistent over the last four NM statewide surveys.

Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson has seen his support decline in his home state for the fourth week in a row, with 8.5 percent of respondents saying they supported Johnson in the past but have since changed their minds. Johnson’s support has dropped from 16 points four weeks ago, to 12 points two weeks ago, 9 points last week, and now to 6.7 points in the final few days.

 
 

JOHNSON SWITCH
In the past few weeks, some people who had supported Gary Johnson for president have switched their vote to another candidate. Which of the following statements best describes you?

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When asked if their vote was a vote of support for their candidate or a protest vote against the other candidate, 1 in 5 voters said their vote was a protest vote. About 23.1 percent of Trump supporters and 23.9 percent of Republicans said their vote was a protest vote as opposed to 14 percent of Clinton supporters and 16 percent of Democrats. Nearly 1 in 4 Republicans are not actually calling themselves Trump supporters, but they are sticking with their party nominee out of protest of Clinton. Almost 40 percent of Johnson supporters say their vote is a protest vote and not necessarily a vote of support for the Libertarian nominee. About 29 percent of voters who registered as Independent or with other parties say their vote is a protest vote against the other candidate(s).

 

SUPPORT OR PROTEST VOTE
Would you say that your choice for President is more a vote of support for your candidate or is it more a protest vote against the other candidate?

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Over the last four NM statewide polls, Republicans have had a higher participation rate compared to the actual historical registered Republican voter turnout. This may be an indication of higher enthusiasm among the Republican base. In the September 24th statewide poll, 3 percent more Republicans than Democrats said they were more enthusiastic about this election year than in previous years. With the frequent Wikileak email releases and the reopening of the FBI investigation into Clinton’s email server, enthusiasm of voters of both parties is likely to play a crucial part in the final days of the campaign. These small deviations from the norm have been taking into consideration when weighting the final sample.

 

PARTY
With which political party are you registered?

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The November 1st & 2nd statewide survey was the first that provided voters the option to take the poll in English and Spanish. While only 1 percent of respondents took the poll in Spanish, 80 percent of Spanish speaking participants selected Hillary Clinton as their choice for president. The other 20 percent said they were still undecided. Though this sample size of Spanish only speaking voters is much too small to extrapolate to the larger population, it is interesting to note that none of this group selected Trump as their choice.

 

LANGUAGE
{At beginning of poll, participants given option of continuing in English or Spanish}

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NM NEWS

NM NEWS: Toulouse Oliver Holds 10 Point Lead over Nora Espinoza in NM Secretary of State Race.

The November 1st and 2nd poll shows Maggie Toulouse Oliver holds a 10 point lead over her opponent Nora Espinoza. The race for New Mexico Secretary of State looks to be comfortably in Oliver’s hands less than a week before election.

 

SECRETARY OF STATE

Now, thinking about the election for the Secretary of State  in New Mexico, if you were standing in the voting booth right now and had to make a choice for secretary of state for whom would you vote?

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RED OR GREEN?

Finally! Something all of New Mexico can agree on- we love our chile! ZiaPoll thought it would be interesting and fun to ask the New Mexico state question as the final question in our last statewide poll before Election Day. Voters were asked if they prefer red or green chile. Green chile won overwhelmingly with 44 percent of voters saying they prefer green, while 24 percent prefer Christmas (red and green together) and 21 percent prefer red. The breakdown of voters who selected green chile was almost identical to the likely voter breakdown in New Mexico: 38 percent Republicans, 45 percent Democrat, and 17 percent Independent/other. So, no matter who we choose for president, we New Mexicans always have our green chile to settle our differences.

 

CHILE
And finally, to add a little spice to this election, the most important question for New Mexicans. Red or Green?

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About This Poll

ZiaPoll, a New Mexico based non-partisan public opinion pollster, followed up its September 24th, October 11th, and 24th New Mexico statewide polls with a new statewide poll on November 1st and 2nd. The scientific study was conducted statewide on November 1st and 2nd with 1,102 likely New Mexico voters selected at random statewide using IVR (Interactive Voice Response) for interviews with voters via landline telephones. Cell phones made up 18 percent of the total sample. Cell phones were contacted and requested to volunteer participation in the same IVR survey. The survey was provided in English and Spanish with only 1 percent of respondents taking the Spanish version. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district. The data was weighted using a layered technique.

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of New Mexico likely voters. The November 1st and 2nd study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 3.0 percent.

This poll conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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