Clinton Takes a 10 Point Lead in New Mexico Following Debate and Trump Tape Release

9 of 10 Voters are Very Familiar with Trump Tape. 7 of 10 Very Familiar with Clinton Emails.

The statewide survey, conducted on October 11 by ZiaPoll, a New Mexico based non-partisan public opinion pollster, showed a big jump for the Clinton campaign. After Sunday’s debate and last week’s release of video tapes where Trump can be heard making crude and sexual remarks about women, and in spite of the recent release by Wikileaks from Clinton’s hacked email server, Clinton now holds a 10 percent lead over Trump.

 

If you were standing in the voting booth right now and had to make a choice for president, for whom would you vote?

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When comparing the last NM statewide poll conducted by ZiaPoll on September 24 to the new post-debate results, Clinton increased her lead from 41.8 percent to 46.2 percent while Donald Trump remained at 36 percent. Former New Mexico Governor and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson slipped 4.2 percent and is now polling at 11.8 percent. Undecided votes made up 4.4 percent and 1.7 percent of voters said they would vote for Jill Stein.

 

The majority of Clinton’s gains came at the expense of Gary Johnson – perhaps voters who jumped from Clinton early in the season, but who now feel that their vote for Johnson could help put Trump in office. When asked about the Trump tape released last week, 9 of 10 voters said they were very familiar with the news story and 1 of 2 said it makes them less likely to vote for Trump.

 

On Friday of last week, an 11 year-old video tape was released that contained audio of Donald Trump making crude sexual remarks about women. How aware are you of this news story?

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Does knowing this information about Donald Trump’s remarks about women make you more likely or less likely to vote for Donald Trump?

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When asked about the Wikileaks email release, 72.8 percent said they are very familiar with the news and 46.4 percent said this makes them less likely to vote for Clinton. About 1 in 3 voters said both the Trump tape and Clinton emails had no impact on their likelihood to vote for either of the candidates.

 

Over the past several days Wikileaks released several thousand more emails from Hillary Clinton’s hacked email server containing sensitive information about the Clinton campaign including closed door meetings with special interest groups and excerpts from private Wall Street speeches. How aware are you of this news story?

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Does knowing this information about Hillary Clinton’s leaked emails make you more likely or less likely to vote for her?

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MORE DATA FROM OUR SEPTEMBER 24 NM STATEWIDE SURVEY

Incumbents look safe. Michelle Lujan Grisham and Steve Pearce Hold Substantial Leads. Ben Ray Lujan Leads by 13 points, but 1 in 5 are Still Undecided in Congressional District 3.

With just over three weeks left before voters head to the polls, the races for New Mexico’s congressional seats look to be settled in two of the three districts. Both Grisham and Pearce lead by at least 20 points going into mid-October. The race in the 3rd district is not quite as certain with 1 in 5 voters saying they are still undecided.

 

NM CD1

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NM CD2

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NM CD3

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OTHER LOCAL NEWS

REINSTATING DEATH PENALTY

Last Thursday (10.06.16) the New Mexico House voted to restore capital punishment by lethal injection for killers of police, children, and corrections officers. The statewide poll showed that 62 percent of New Mexicans support reinstating the death penalty for these killers while 29 percent oppose this type of punishment. Although the Senate has not yet voted, the report shows 2 out of 3 New Mexicans support the House’s decision.

 

In 2009 the death penalty was abolished in the state of New Mexico. Some politicians are now considering re-instating the death penalty as an option for convicted killers of children, police and corrections officers. Do you support or oppose re-instating the death penalty in New Mexico under these circumstances?

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About This Poll

ZiaPoll, a New Mexico based non-partisan public opinion pollster, followed up its September 24 New Mexico Statewide poll with a new, post-Presidential debate poll on October 11. 1,536 likely voters took the poll via interviews on landlines and cell phones.

The scientific study was conducted October 11 with 1,536 likely New Mexico voters selected at random statewide using IVR (Interactive Voice Response) for live interviews with landlines and cellphones. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the New Mexico likely voter population for a general election. The data was weighted using a layered technique.

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of New Mexico likely voters. The October 11 study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 2.5 percent.

This poll conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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